Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad. We’re offering UFC Vegas 82 Prop His bets with super-sized odds for his ESPN+ event on Saturday.
Each round of Prop Squad gains +21.1 units; +7.6% ROI per bet up to now.
This week at UFC Vegas 82: Allen vs. Craig, team members Dan Tom, Clint McLean, Billy Ward, and Tony Sartori return.
Check out their picks below for Saturday’s event, which kicks off at 2pm ET (11am PT) at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all gambling, always bet within your means. This guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Props often offer attractive odds, but they cash out much less frequently than standard bets. Also, prop odds can vary widely between sportsbooks, so be sure to look for the best price.
Dan Tom: JoAnderson Brito in Round 1 (+420)
Contributor and host of The Action Network Protect Ya Neck Podcast
Fighter Strike: Approximately 4:25 p.m. ET
For this week’s prop squad picks, we decided to target a round prop with some potential, with a match between Jonathan Pearce (-138) and JoAnderson Brito (+108) on the reserve card .
While the smaller octagon at UFC Apex gives Pearce’s tenacious grappling style a slight advantage on paper, I believe this fight is closely lined up for a reason.
I also can’t help but notice the decent numbers related to Brito’s biggest win condition: disruption within the first round.
Not only are both fighters quick starters, but 10 of Brito’s 13 stoppage wins have come within the first frame of the fight.
Add in the fact that all three of Pierce’s losses came in the first round, and I feel obligated to take a shot at a Brazilian like Brito. Don’t worry about targeting him.
Pick: JoAnderson Brito, Round 1 (+420)
Clint McLean: Luana Pinheiro KO (+500)
Contributor and host of The Action Network Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter Strike: Approximately 5:25 p.m. ET
Amanda Rivas is looking to get back up to 115 pounds after a brutal KO finish by Macy Barber.
Before dropping to 125 pounds, Rivas cited a tough cut to 115 pounds as part of his durability issues, but the extra weight didn’t seem to help.
Rivas has been KO’d three times as a professional MMA fighter, and has been shocked even more. Although she has exceptional skills, jaw issues seem to be Rivas’ Achilles heel.
Luana Pinheiro is an outstanding young fighter who has built a career on her explosiveness and physicality. Most of her wins have come by submission, but lately we’ve seen her focus on striking. And she certainly hits hard.
This is basically a system play for me. Look for Luana to pick up where Barber left off.
Pick: Luana Pinheiro KO (+500)
Billy Ward: Luana Pinheiro vs. Amanda Rivas ends in split decision (+450)
Action Network Staff Writer
Fighter Strike: Approximately 5:25 p.m. ET
Both fighters on the main card of UFC Vegas 81 have had somewhat controversial split decision results recently. For Amanda Rivas, it was a loss to Katrin Chokajian that ended the way many would have scored. For Luana Pinheiro, her win over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in April may not have been what she deserved.
My first thought was that this is mostly just luck and should even out in the long run. However, I watched both games as part of my research into analyzing this match, and it changed my opinion.
Rivas tends to be very slow to react when attacked, even in fights that he ultimately wins. What appears to be a relatively innocuous blow can cause a huge reaction and be considered unfavorable by the judges. Additionally, her grappling-focused style isn’t as appreciated as it once was, which creates a double whammy for the judges as her vision is diminished.
Piñeiro, on the other hand, throws everything viciously, piling up wild shots at his feet. Even if they don’t land cleanly, they look bigger than they are at that moment.
Additionally, although both are black belts in judo, Rivas prefers low-impact leg and hip throws, while Pinheiro focuses on shoulder and head throws, which also swayed the judges in her favor. there is a possibility.
Or maybe they won’t, since Rivas should have cleaner technique, get more control time, and land more total strikes than Pinheiro in this fight.
Either way, both fighters leave a lot to interpretation, as it’s entirely possible to prioritize Rivas’ control time and precise striking over Pinheiro’s brawling style and big throws, or vice versa. I entrust it to you.
Pick: Luana Pinheiro vs. Amanda Rivas, ending by split/majority decision (+450 at DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: Jordan Leavitt’s Decision (+410 at BetRivers)
Action Network Contributor
Fighter Strike: Approximately 6:25 p.m. ET
On Saturday’s main card of UFC Vegas 82, Chase Hooper takes on Jordan Leavitt in a lightweight bout.
You’re likely to see all the weapons in mixed martial arts at this scrap. Both men can strike, grapple, and both have the ability to lock in submissions.
This match could go in virtually any direction, but I would argue that if you want to zero in on the underdog, doing so with the help of the judges will give you the most likely outcome. . Yes, Leavitt just knocked out Victor Martinez in his most recent fight, but that was only his second career TKO victory (the other came via slam).
Hooper, on the other hand, was caught only once in his professional career. If this match takes place on the mat, Levitt should have the advantage in wrestling, but Hooper will be more dangerous in the submission department.
Considering Leavitt is giving up 4 inches of height and 3 inches of reach, it would be wise for his corner to beg him to close that distance and go for the takedown. If that’s really the game plan, an advantage in the wrestling department bodes well for taking someone down by decision, considering they can accumulate control time.
It was Trey Ogden who took the fight to Leavitt and Matt in their 2022 bout, but Leavitt was able to rack up over five minutes of control en route to a decision victory. Meanwhile, two of Hooper’s three losses in the UFC have come by decision.
Additionally, Hooper has never been submitted in his career. Even if Hooper is able to avoid a submission, if Levitt can gain some control time on the mat, we’ll definitely see the underdog raise his hand after a hard-fought three rounds.
Pick: Jordan Leavitt (+410 at BetRivers)
